Gastroenterol Res

Gastroenterology Research, ISSN 1918-2805 print, 1918-2813 online, Open Access

Article copyright, the authors; Journal compilation copyright, Gastroenterol Res and Elmer Press Inc

Journal website http://www.gastrores.org

Original Article

Volume 4, Number 5, October 2011, pages 216-222

Predicting Acute Pancreatitis Severity: Comparison of Prognostic Scores

Figures

Figure 1. Demographic features and etiology of acute pancreatitis.

Figure 2. ROC curves and AUC of acute pancreatitis prognostic scores.

Tables

**Table 1.** Severe Acute Pancreatitis Criteria
Diagnose of severe AP	Criteria
Early Prognostic Scores	Ranson ≥ 3
Early Prognostic Scores	APACHE II ≥ 8
Organ Failure	Systolic pressure < 90 mmHg
	PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg
	Creatinine > 2.0 mg/L after rehydratation
	Gastrointestinal bleeding > 500 cc/24 h
Local Complications (on CT scan)	Necrosis
	Abcess
	Pseudocyst

**Table 2.** Value of Prognostic Scores in the Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis
	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	AUC
PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; AUC: Area under the curve.
Ranson	91.2	74.4	57.4	95.7	0.879 (0.818-0.940)
Glasgow	73.5	71.1	49.0	87.7	0.805 (0.724-0.886)
Balthazar	26.7	100.0	100.0	68.6	0.715 (0.528-0.902)
APACHE II (0 h)	83.3	68.9	51.7	91.2	0.861 (0.785-0.938)
APACHE II (48 h)	79.4	83.1	64.3	91.4	0.892 (0.832-0.953)
CRP (48 h)	44.4	70.7	41.4	73.2	0.683 (0.564-0.802)

**Table 3.** Correlation of Prognostic Scores With Study Endpoints
	Severity	Mortality	Complications	Length of Stay
^***Odds ratio not calculated; a: Odds Ratio; b: Chi-square test; c: Fisher exact test; d: Mann-Whitney test.
Ranson	30.101 (8.401-107.857)^a P < 0.001^b	*** P = 0.001^c	2.045 (0.723-5.786)^a P = 0.171^b	8 versus 12 days P = 0.016^d
Glasgow	6.838 (2.814-16.615)^a P < 0.001^b	*** P = 0.001^c	1.323 (0.473-3.698)^a P = 0.593^b	8 versus 12 days P = 0.003^d
Balthazar	*** P = 0.017^c	14.333 (0.707-290.431)^a P = 0.161^c	*** P = 0.012^c	17 versus 37 days P < 0.001^d
APACHE II (0 h)	11.071 (4.140-29.605)^a P < 0.001^b	*** P < 0.001^c	1.049 (0.377-2.921)^a P = 0.927^b	8 versus 11 days P = 0.029^d
APACHE II (48 h)	19.029 (7.003-51.701)^a P < 0.001^b	*** P < 0.001^c	1.882 (0.668-5.304)^a P = 0.227^b	9 versus 13 days P = 0.010^d
CRP (48 h)	1.929 (0.749-4.972)^a P = 0.171^b	2.375 (0.559-10.086)^a P = 0.252^c	6.600 (2.090-20.843)^a P = 0.001^c	7 versus 13,5 days P < 0.001^d